Economics
Md Junayed Hossain
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and investors. This research explores the use of SARIMAX, ARIMA, and Random Forest models to forecast GDP in the UK. The study investigates the relationship between GDP and the unemployment rate, considering ...
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Accurate forecasting of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and investors. This research explores the use of SARIMAX, ARIMA, and Random Forest models to forecast GDP in the UK. The study investigates the relationship between GDP and the unemployment rate, considering historical GDP and unemployment data collected from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). Both SARIMAX and ARIMA models indicate a negative relationship between GDP and the unemployment rate, although the coefficients are not statistically significant. On the other hand, the Random Forest model has shown its supremacy when it comes to the accuracy of prediction. The results suggest that other factors may have a stronger influence on GDP fluctuations based on the empirical findings. Future research should consider additional variables and advanced modelling techniques to further explore the relationship between GDP and the unemployment rate, contributing to a deeper understanding of the UK economy and informing effective economic management.
Economics
Laban Gasper; Enid Kebby Ernest
Abstract
Consumer price index (CPI) is a socioeconomic statistic that tracks changes over time in the average price of consumer goods and services such as household purchases of fuel, transportation, food and so on that consumers buy, use, or pay for. The purchasing power of everyone is impacted by rising costs, ...
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Consumer price index (CPI) is a socioeconomic statistic that tracks changes over time in the average price of consumer goods and services such as household purchases of fuel, transportation, food and so on that consumers buy, use, or pay for. The purchasing power of everyone is impacted by rising costs, especially if salaries stay the same. Our ability to purchase more things with our TZS reduces when the CPI increases more quickly than earnings, which has an impact on our cost of living. The aim of this study is to use the CPI monthly data from IMF website for the period from Jan 2010 to Dec 2022 to develop a forecasting model by using Holt Winter’s approach. Holt Winter's model based on four equations and popularly known as Triple exponential smoothing is commonly used in forecasting data with trends and seasonality. Holt Winter’s model is composed of four equations relating to level, trend, seasonal and forecast. The results revealed that the Holt winter’s model with smoothing parameters, 0.9 for level, 0.12 for trend, and 0.03 for seasonal was the best model in forecasting Consumer Price Index. The CPI for Tanzania is predicted for the next eighteen months and it has been observed that the trend of CPI is likely to increase in the next eighteen months.
Mahyar Kamali Saraji; Ali Morovati Sharifabadi
Volume 4, Issue 12 , December 2017, , Pages 1192-1205
Abstract
Forecasting is a part of decision-making system, and the outcomes gained from the businesses and industries are all resulted from the decisions taken in the past by relying upon the future forecasting. When it's difficult to forecast mentally, we need to use modeling. The system dynamics of a modeling ...
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Forecasting is a part of decision-making system, and the outcomes gained from the businesses and industries are all resulted from the decisions taken in the past by relying upon the future forecasting. When it's difficult to forecast mentally, we need to use modeling. The system dynamics of a modeling tool is based on systems thinking approach; hence, it has the ability to model complex systems using feedback processes. In this paper, we have reviewed the ability of system dynamics to forecast various fields of study such as marketing, supply chain, environment by reviewing 28 research papers.
