Document Type : Original Research

Authors

Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Sfax, Street of Airport, LP 1088, Sfax 3018, Tunisia

Abstract

This paper aims to assess the impact of population growth on GDP and environmental quality.  For this, we use the generalized moments in system method (GMM) with dynamic panel data for ten countries over the period 1980-2013. The main results of this study are: (i) the population have a positive and significant impact on economic growth while the capital has a positive but no significant effect on economic growth. (ii) For the environment, population growth has a positive and significant effect on CO2 emissions, the urbanization is negatively and significantly contributed to CO2 emissions, but trade openness has no effect on CO2 emissions. What is concluded that the effect of the population depends on other factors such as aging, hierarchical structure and the economic level of the country?

Keywords

Adediran O. A. (2012) “Effect of Population on Economic Development in Nigeria: A Quantitative Assessment” International Journal of Physical and Social Sciences, vol 2, (5).
Afzal, M., (2009). Population Growth and Economic Development in Pakistan, The Open Demography Journal, 2: 1-7.
Ali, S., Ali, A., & Amin, A. (2013). The Impact of Population Growth on Economic Development in Pakistan. Middle-East Journal of Scientific Research, 18(4), 483-491.
Araujo, R. A. (2004). Optimal human investment allocation. Economics Letter, 85, 71 – 76.
Arellano, M. et Bond, S., (1991). Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
Arellano, M. et Bover, O., (1995). Another Look at the Instrumental-Variable Estimation of Error Components Models, Journal of Econometrics, 68, 29-52.
Azomahou, T;  Nguyen Van, P., (2001). Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions: A Non parametric Approach., CORE Discussion Paper 2001/12, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, et BETA Working Paper 2001-01, Université Louis Pasteur, Strasbourg.
Banerjee, A. & Zanghieri, P., 2003, “A new look at the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle using an integrated panel”, Cepii working paper 2003/22.
Banque Mondiale., (1992). World Development Report, Oxford University Press, New York.
Beck, T., Levine, R. et Loayza, N., (2000). Finance and the Sources of Growth, Journal of Financial Economics, 58 (1-2), 261-300.
Blundell R and S. Bond, (1998). “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,” Journal of Econometrics 87, 115-143.
Busse, M., & Königer, J. (2012). Trade and economic growth: A re-examination of the empirical evidence. Available at SSRN 2009939.
Chandran VGR, Tang CF, (2013). The impacts of transport energy consumption, foreign direct investment and income on CO2 emissions in ASEAN-5 economies. Renew Sustain Energy Rev; 24:445–53.
Climent Francisco and Meneu Robert (2003) “Demography and economic growth in Spain: A time series analysis”, Available at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers .cfm?abstract_id=482222.
Cropper, M; Griffiths, C., (1994). The Interaction of Population Growth and Environmental Quality. American Economic Review, 82, 250-254.
Demetriades, P. and S. Law, “Finance, Institutions and Economic Growth,” University of Leicester Discussion Papers in Economics 04/5, 2004.
Ehrlich, P.R; Ehrlich, A.H., (1981). Extinction: the Causes and Consequences of the Disappearance of Species, Random House, New York.
Ejuvbekpokpo, S. A. (2014). Impact of carbon emissions on economic growth in Nigeria. Asian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences Vol1(1).
Furuoka, (2009) ''Population Growth and Economic Development: New Empirical Evidence from Thailand'', Economics Bulletin, Vol. 29 no.1 pp. 1-14.
Furuoka, F and Munir, Q (2011). Can Population Growth Contribute to Economic Development? New evidence from Singapore, Economics Bulletin, Vol. 31 No. 4 pp. 3226-3239
Furuoka, F. (2013). “Population and economic development in Indonesia: Revisit with new data and method”, Acta Oeconomica, 63(4): 451-467.
Furuoka, F. (2014). Population and economic development in Sarawak, Malaysia (No. 60636). University Library of Munich, Germany.
Greenwood, J., Sanchez, J. M., & Wang, C. (2013). Quantifying the impact of financial development on economic development. Review of Economic Dynamics16(1), 194-215.
Grossman, G.M; Krueger, A.B., (1993).Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement., dans Garber P. (éd.), The U.S. Mexico Free Trade Agreement,MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 165.177.
Grossman, G.M; Krueger, A.B., (1995). Economic Growth and the Environment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 60, 353-377.
Guillaumont Jeanneney, S., Hua, P., 2008. Appreciation of the renminbi and urban-rural income disparity in china. Revue d’´eonomie du d´eveloppement 22 (5), 67–92.
Hassen, S., (2014).  Financial Development and Economic Growth: case of the MENA region. International Journal of Business & Economic Strategy (IJBES), Vol.1
Holtz-Eakin, D; Selden T. M., (1995). Stoking the Fires? CO2 Emissions and Economic Growth. Journal of Public Economics, 57, 85-101.
Huchet-Bourdon, M., Le Mouël, C. L. M., & Vijil, M. (2011, August). The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: some new insights on the openness measurement issue. In XIIIème Congrès de l'Association Européenne des Economistes Agricoles (EAAE).
Hurlin, C., Mignon, V., 2005. Une synth`ese des tests de racine unitaire sur donn´ees de panel. Economie & pr´evision 3 (169-170-171), p. 253–294.
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
Jayanthakumaran, K., Verma, R., & Liu, Y. (2012). CO2 emissions, energy consumption,trade and income: A comparative analysis of China and India,. Energy Policy, 42, 450–460.
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1-44.
Kaufmann, R.K; Davidsdottir, B; Garnham, S; Pauly, P., (1998). The Determinants of Atmospheric SO2 Concentrations: Reconsidering the Environmental Kuznets Curve., Ecological Economics, 25, 209-220.
Kelley, A. C; McGreevey W.P., (1994). “Population and development in historical perspective”, in R. H. Casson (ed.), Population and Development: Old Debates, New Conclusions, New Brunswick, NJ and Oxford: Transaction Publishers.
Kelley, Allen C. 1988. Economic consequences of population change in the Third World. Journal of Economic Literature 26:1685-728
Levin, A., Lin, C. F., & Chu, C. S. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
Levine, R., Loayza, N. and  Beck, T., (2000). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46 (1), 31-77.
Lozeau, B., 2007. The Effects of Population Growth on Economic Performances in China and India.
Mahmud, M.A., (2015). Econometric Model of Population Growth and Economic Development in India: An Empirical Analysis. Proceedings of the International Symposium on Emerging Trends in Social Science Research, 1: 23-6.
Martínez-Zarzoso, I., & Maruotti, A. (2011). The impact of urbanization on CO2 emissions: evidence from developing countries. Ecological Economics, 70(7), 1344-1353.
Martínez-Zarzoso, I.; Bengochea-Morancho, A. and Morales-Lage, R. (2007), “The Impact of Population and CO2 Emissions – Evidence from European Countries”, Environmental and Resource Economics 38, 497-512.
Merican Y, Yusop Z, Noor ZM, Hook LS, (2007). Foreign direct investment and the pollution in five ASEAN nations. Int J Econ Manag;1:245–61.
Morancho, A. B., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., & Morales-Lage, R. (2006). The Impact of Population on CO2 Emissions: Evidence From European Countries.
Ohlan, R., (2015). The impact of population density, energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness on CO2 emissions in India. Nat Hazards, 10: 11069-1898
Pedroni, P. (1997). Panel co-integration, asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests, with an application to the PPP hypothesis: new results. Economics Working Paper, Indiana University.
Pedroni, P. (1999). Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors. Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics, 61, 653-670.
Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597-625.
Peng, X (2002). Population Growth, Transaction Efficiency, and Economic Development In Selected Asian Countries. IUSSP Regional Conference on Southeast Asia’s Population in a Changing Asian Context held in Bangkok, Thailand, 10-13, June.
Rioja, F. et Valev, N., (2004). Finance and the Sources of Growth at Various Stages of Economic Development, Economic Inquiry, 42 (1), 127-140.
Sadorsky, P. (2014). The effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions in emerging economies. Energy Economics41, 147-153.
Saidi, K., & Hammami, S. (2015). The impact of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions on economic growth: Fresh evidence from dynamic simultaneous-equations models. Sustainable Cities and Society, 14, 178-186.
Seker, F., Ertugrul, H. M., & Cetin, M. (2015). The impact of foreign direct investment on environmental quality: A bounds testing and causality analysis for Turkey. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews52, 347-356.
Selden, T.M; Song, D., (1994). Environmental Quality and Development: is there a Kuznets Curve for Air Pollution Emissions? Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 27, 147-162.
Shi, A. (2001, August). Population growth and global carbon dioxide emissions. In IUSSP Conference in Brazil/session-s09.
Simon, J.L., (1981). The Ultimate Resource, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
Solow, Robert M. 1956. “A contribution to the theory of economic growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics 70(1): 65-94
Thuku G, K and Obere A. (2013). Impact of Population Change on Economic Growth in Kenya. International Journal of Economics and Management Sciences. Vol. 2, No 6, pp. 43-60
Zhu, Q., & Peng, X. (2012). The impacts of population change on carbon emissions in China during 1978–2008. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 36, 1-8.