Economics
Etuk Harrison Etuk; Obioma Gertrude Onukwube; Imoh Udo Moffat
Abstract
Russia and Ukraine are in a war, with the former invading the latter. This puts the latter under great stress, many have died in the process and many more have been displaced and many more have fled from Ukraine. This has resulted in intervention in many time series related to Ukraine. For example, the ...
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Russia and Ukraine are in a war, with the former invading the latter. This puts the latter under great stress, many have died in the process and many more have been displaced and many more have fled from Ukraine. This has resulted in intervention in many time series related to Ukraine. For example, the time series of the daily exchange rates of Ukrainian Hryvnia (UAH) and United States Dollars (USD) experienced an intervention on the first day of Russian incursion. By Box and Tiao (1975) approach, a realization of the time series from 1 January 2022 to 15 March 2022 is analyzed. The intervention model arrived at is found adequate. It can be the basis for management and planning.
Ette Harrison Etuk; Eberechi Humphrey Amadi
Volume 3, Issue 12 , December 2016, , Pages 797-805
Abstract
This work concerns itself with the intervention analysis of the British pound, GBP, and the United States dollar, USD.It has been observed that the GBP has fallen sharply after June 23, 2016 relative to the USD. It is being speculated that this is due to the recent exit of Great Britain from the European ...
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This work concerns itself with the intervention analysis of the British pound, GBP, and the United States dollar, USD.It has been observed that the GBP has fallen sharply after June 23, 2016 relative to the USD. It is being speculated that this is due to the recent exit of Great Britain from the European Union EU. A realization of the daily exchange rate series from 17th March to 12th September. 2016 is analyzed by ARIMA methods. The intervention point is June 23, 2016, after which there is a sharp fall in the relative value of the GBP. This fall is shown to be statistically significant. The pre-intervention series is observed to follow an ARIMA(1,1,0) model. Following the nature of this fall, an adequate intervention model has been proposed and fitted.